What actually happens
Factories close for two to three weeks. Then they reopen with a fraction of their workforce, because a percentage of migrant workers do not return, and it takes another two weeks to get back to full output.
Call it a six-week hole. Around it are two queues: everybody trying to ship before the shutdown, and everybody trying to produce after it. Both queues are worse than the hole.
The pre-holiday squeeze
In the four weeks before the shutdown, factories run at capacity and quality drifts. This is the single worst time of the year to be running a first production order with a new supplier, because the line is under pressure and your order is the least important one on it.
Freight also tightens. Space gets scarce, rates rise, and the vessel you assumed would sail is full. If your goods must ship before the holiday, book the space when you place the order, not when the goods are ready.
The post-holiday recovery
Output is low for two to three weeks, and the queue from the shutdown has to clear before your order starts. An order placed in the week after the holiday is not at the front of the line, and no amount of pressure will change that.
Planning around it
- Place orders for spring stock before the holiday, with the deposit paid, so the slot exists.
- Push the inspection earlier. Do not let the pre-shipment check land in the last week before the shutdown, because there will be nobody to rework anything.
- Book freight space early. The rate is not the problem, the space is.
- If you are late, use rail or air rather than accepting a delivery date the factory cannot keep.
- Assume the factory will tell you it is fine. They believe it when they say it.
- The shutdown is two to three weeks. The disruption is six.
- Quality drifts in the four weeks before the holiday. Do not run a first order into it.
- Book freight space when you place the order, not when the goods are ready.
- An order placed after the holiday joins a queue. That queue is not negotiable.
